changeadminAccurate weather-related predictions are critical to enable countries to mitigate disasters and optimise resources. These forecasts support agriculture, water management, and economic stability, particularly in climate-vulnerable nations like India.
Precise weather forecasts enable early warnings of floods, landslides, and storms, facilitating evacuations and infrastructure protection. Accurate foresight reduces human and financial losses.
In India, weather forecasts are issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. In 2024, the skill score for 24-hour (one-day) advance detection of heavy rainfall across meteorological subdivisions is 85%.
At present, the accuracy of IMD’s heavy rainfall forecasts is measured as the percentage of correct warnings for lead times ranging from one to five days. Overall, forecast accuracy for heavy rainfall events nationwide improved by about 40% in 2023–2024 compared with 2014.
| Day | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMD Accuracy of Rain Prediction | 85% | 73% | 67% | 63% | 58% |
Improving the accuracy of weather forecasts requires enhanced state-of-the-art observational networks, skilled human resources to conduct research and development of numerical weather prediction models, and robust infrastructure, such as high-performance computing systems, to run these models at the required high resolution to predict weather patterns driven by climate change.
Currently, 47 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) are in operation across India, covering 87% of the country’s total area. These radars are advanced meteorological instruments that detect precipitation and measure its motion using the Doppler effect. They transmit radio-wave pulses into the atmosphere, which reflect off raindrops, snowflakes, or hail, returning data on location, intensity, and speed toward or away from the radar.
The Ministry is in continuous endeavour to augment the observational and R&D infrastructure to achieve greater accuracy in weather forecasting. Earlier this year, on the occasion of the India Meteorological Department’s 150th anniversary, the Ministry launched Mission Mausam.
Mission Mausam, with an outlay of Rs 2000 crore over two years, aims to transform India into a ‘Weather-ready and Climate-smart’ nation through advanced weather surveillance technologies, high-resolution atmospheric observations, next-generation radars, satellites, and high-performance computing systems.
A couple of Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) have already been installed as part of the mission. Currently, 47 radars are operational across India, covering 87% of the country’s total area.
Under the Mission Mausam, the Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS), an advanced weather forecasting model, has been developed and is operational at a high spatial resolution of 6 km. It can also provide rainfall predictions up to 10 days ahead, covering short- and medium-range forecasts.
Due to its higher resolution and improved dynamics, it generates weather forecasts at the panchayat or cluster of panchayats level. Further, a significant achievement is the introduction of the Mithuna Forecast System (Mithuna-FS).
This new-generation global coupled model integrates the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea ice components with state-of-the-art physics and an upgraded data assimilation framework.
Currently, this forecasting system operates at 12-km resolution, marking a significant advancement in India’s medium-range localised weather forecasting capability. The Mithuna-FS suite also includes –
- A 4-km high-resolution regional model for accurate simulation of monsoon dynamics, cyclones, and mesoscale extreme events over the Indian subcontinent;
- A 330-m hyper-resolution urban model for fog, visibility, and air-quality forecasting over the Delhi region.
As a result of these new initiatives, forecasting accuracy for severe weather events has improved by 30-40% over the last 10 years.
Weather Forecast Alerts and Dissemination
The government weather unit issues impact-based forecasts and risk-based early warnings for heavy rainfall, considering rainfall magnitude and the area’s susceptibility. The warning is issued at the meteorological subdivision and district levels and is valid for 7 and 5 days, respectively.
IMD also consistently issues timely alerts and forecasts to the public and concerned stakeholders. Various measures have been implemented to ensure the effective dissemination of warnings to vulnerable populations.
IMD’s weather information, including alerts and warnings to the public, is provided through various platforms:
- Mass Media: Radio/TV, Newspaper network (AM, FM, Community Radio, Private TV), Prasar Bharati, and private broadcasters.
- Weekly & Daily Weather Video.
- Internet (e-mail), FTP
- Public Website (mausam.imd.gov.in)
- IMD Apps: Mausam/Meghdoot/Damini/Rain Alarm/Umang.
- Social Media: Facebook, X, Instagram, BLOG
IMD has developed mobile apps for various environmental factors, including ‘MAUSAM’ for weather forecasting, ‘Meghdoot’ for Agromet advisory dissemination, and ‘Damini’ for lightning alerts. The Common Alert Protocol (CAP), developed by the NDMC, is also being implemented by the IMD to disseminate warnings.
Additionally, IMD has launched seven of its services (Current Weather, Nowcast, City Forecast, Rainfall Information, Tourism Forecast, Warnings, and Cyclone) via the ‘UMANG’ Mobile App for public use.
IMD currently is equipped with a Decision Support System (DSS) based real-time multi-hazard impact based early warning system (EWS), which integrates all types of real-time and historical data, numerical weather prediction products, etc., to effectively monitor, detect and provide timely forecasts and impact-based warnings with suggested actions up to districts and city/station levels against all types of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall events, droughts etc.
IMD has Meteorological Centres (MCs) in each State, as well as special centres such as Cyclone Warning Centres for each affected State, which provide services around the clock during cyclones and the heavy rainfall season.
Landslide Forecasts
Regarding landslides, the Geological Survey of India (GSI), under the Ministry of Mines, is mandated to issue regional landslide forecasts/early warnings based on rainfall thresholds.
Currently, GSI issues daily operational/experimental regional landslide forecast bulletins for 21 districts across 08 (eight) States during the monsoon period.
GSI’s landslide forecast model is primarily based on rainfall thresholds derived from historical rainfall and landslide occurrence data, in conjunction with daily rainfall forecasts from institutions under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
Regarding the efficiency of the current forecast model, the evaluation shows a hit rate of more than 80% across the forecasting zones of the operational districts, namely Darjeeling, Kalimpong, Nilgiris, and Rudraprayag.
Wrapping Up
Weather forecasts play a pivotal role in India by empowering farmers, who rely heavily on monsoon rains for over 50% of agricultural output, to make informed decisions on planting, irrigation, and harvesting.
These forecasts mitigate risks from floods, droughts, and erratic weather intensified by climate change, enabling proactive measures such as hydropower reservoir management and urban flood defences, while boosting economic returns.
Given this, IMD’s ability to provide accurate weather forecasts through region-specific alerts enhances climate resilience, food security, rural livelihoods, and a sustainable economy.
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